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Assessing the Vulnerability of Species, Ecological Communities and Ecological Systems to Projected Future Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

The Nature Conservancy (TNC), in cooperation with partners from the University of Washington College of Forest Resources, and the U.S. Geological Survey, is currently developing a study to investigate the potential impacts of future climate change on The Nature Conservancy’s conservation targets and portfolio sites in the Pacific Northwest. First, we will create a database that ranks TNC conservation targets, including ecological systems (e.g., Pinus ponderosa woodlands), ecological communities (e.g., plant associations), and individual species with respect to their intrinsic sensitivities to climate change. Climate-change sensitivities will be based on multiple aspects of species’ biology and the ecology of communities and ecosystems, and will be determined independently of any projected changes in climate. The second part of the study will use 30 simulations of future climate from 10 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to assess the magnitude and range of potential future climate change in the Pacific Northwest. These climate-change simulations will be used to model the effects of climate change on the distribution of vegetation and on the distributions of 80 bird and mammal species in the region.

For the final stage of the study, we will integrate the data compiled in the the climate-sensitivity database with the three sets of climate-based projections (climate change, vegetation changes, and shifts in bird and mammal distributions) to asses the particular vulnerabilities of TNC’s conservation targets and portfolio sites. The analyses of climate-change impacts will be developed to address both basic science questions and the particular information needs of TNC scientists. A unique part of this project is the explicit collaboration between climate-change modelers and conservation practitioners. Each component of this study will be developed in collaboration with TNC scientists and managers, allowing us to develop research results that specifically meet the needs of conservation scientists, managers, and practitioners.

For more information about this project, please contact:

, Ph. D., Director of Conservation Science, The Nature Conservancy
, Ph. D., Assistant Professor, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington
, Ph. D., Research Scientist, U.S. Geological Survey